This page brings together a selection of older, but still useful, resources on theories of change. For a wider and more recently updated set of open-access guides, papers and examples, see the main LfS theories of change resource page.
Many of these guides and papers helped shape early practitioner understanding of ToC as both a process and a product: a way of clarifying how change is expected to happen, surfacing assumptions, supporting planning, and linking action with monitoring, evaluation and learning.
Although some of these resources were written before current debates about complexity, systems change and adaptive practice became more prominent, many of their core insights remain relevant. They remind us that a useful theory of change is not just a diagram or a donor requirement. It is a way of supporting critical reflection, shared understanding and learning over time.
Theories of Change in International Development: Communication, Learning, or Accountability?
This 2014 paper by Craig Valters examines how theory of change is used in international development, including its links with communication, learning and accountability. It argues that ToC can create space for critical reflection, but only where there is a wider commitment to learning within organisations and across the development sector. The paper outlines six lessons for more useful ToC practice.
Learning about Theories of Change for the Monitoring and Evaluation of Research Uptake
This 2013 practice paper by Chris Barnett and Robbie Gregorowski draws on experience with organisations working at the research–policy interface. It highlights the need to move beyond static depictions of change developed at the start of a project, and instead create incentives to gather evidence, test assumptions, and revisit the theory over time.
Theory of Change Technical Papers – ActKnowledge
This 2013 report by Dana Taplin and colleagues from ActKnowledge provides a set of short technical papers on developing theories of change. ActKnowledge uses ToC to support organisational capacity building, goal clarification, evaluation and organisational change. The related ActKnowledge guides page provides further downloads and practical resources on ToC methodology.
Understanding ‘Theory of Change’ in international development: A review of existing knowledge
This 2012 report by Danielle Stein and Craig Valters reviews key concepts and debates in theory of change practice. It identifies four overlapping purposes of ToC: strategic planning, description, monitoring and evaluation, and learning. The report also discusses common uncertainties around assumptions and evidence, and summarises emerging views on good ToC content and process.
Theories of Change: A guide to monitoring and evaluating policy influence
This 12-page paper by Harry Jones (ODI) offers a clear introduction to using Theory of Change for policy-influencing work. It outlines three common ToC models and how they apply in policy evaluation, and provides guidance on choosing suitable M&E tools for strategies such as advocacy, campaigning, and lobbying. The resource is a practical starting point for improving learning and accountability in policy settings.
Theory of Change review
This 2011 report by Cathy James aims to draw together Comic Relief staff and partners’ experiences in using theory of change; to identify others in development that are using theory of change and analyse their different approaches and experience; and to capture learning from everyone to promote debate, and to help inform what agencies using or advocating for the use of theory of change do next.
Using Programme Theory to Evaluate Complicated and Complex Aspects of Interventions
This 2008 journal paper by Patricia Rogers explores how programme theory can support evaluation of interventions with complicated and complex elements. It distinguishes between complicated situations, involving multiple components, and complex situations, where change is emergent. The paper provides useful examples of programme theory evaluations that represent and address both types of situation.
The Community Builder’s Approach to Theory of Change; A Practical Guide to Theory Development
This guide by Andrea Anderson is designed for planners and evaluators facilitating theory of change processes with community-based programmes and change initiatives. The first section explains what a theory of change is and how to facilitate a ToC process with a community group. The second section provides a toolbox for facilitators.
Theory of Change: A Practical Tool For Action, Results and Learning
This manual was prepared by Organizational Research Services (ORS) in Seattle Washington and written by Jane Reisman, Anne Gienapp and colleagues. It is designed as a practical guide to help develop a therory of change with a number of worksheets.
Theory of Change Tool Manual
This manual from the International Network on Strategic Philanthropy provides a worksheet-based guide for developing a theory of change or logic model. It was designed for foundations, trustees, NGOs, donors, philanthropists and consultants involved in strategic philanthropy, helping them link present conditions, planned actions, monitoring and evaluation to a longer-term vision of success.
Theory of change: monitoring and evaluation
In this podcast Andrew Clappison explains how your theory of change can be adapted into an effective means of monitoring and evaluating your success. This podcast is of real value to those people who have developed a theory of change, but are unclear on how to monitor and evaluate their progress against it.
For a wider and more recently updated set of resources, see the Theory of Change resources and guidance page, which brings together curated and annotated links to open-access guides, papers and examples. You may also be interested in related resources on logic modelling, indicator development and conceptual modelling.