A Theory of Change brings strategy, evidence, and experience together. I find it most useful as an aid to thinking, conversation and learning, rather than as a fixed representation of how change will unfold. It helps make intended pathways visible, connects planning with reflection and learning, and supports conversations about what a programme or initiative hopes to influence and why. Used well, a ToC supports sense-making and adaptation as work unfolds, rather than locking plans in place.
In practice, ToCs often sit alongside more focused tools such as logic models, which can also be useful thinking tools when used lightly and revisited over time. A ToC provides the broader reasoning and direction, while logic models help clarify activities, outputs, outcomes, and measures in more detail. Many programmes also work with several levels of ToC, from a high-level strategic view through to more detailed versions for specific projects, themes, or workstreams.
As a connecting hub across this site, this page brings together approaches, examples, and tools that support practical and learning-oriented use of Theory of Change. The resources below offer guidance for developing ToCs that remain flexible, understandable, and useful in real programme and strategy work.
Explore Theory of Change resources on this site
The resources below support practical, learning-oriented uses of Theory of Change. Different starting points will suit different needs, whether you are developing a ToC for the first time, linking it with logic models, using it in evaluation, or looking for examples and further resources.
- If you are looking for practical guidance
Start with Theory of Change – resources and guidance for curated and annotated links to open-access guides, frameworks and examples that can support ToC development. - If you want to connect Theory of Change with logic models
Go to Managing for outcomes: using logic modelling for an introduction to outcome-focused planning and how logic models help clarify activities, outputs, outcomes and measures. - If you are working with decision support or applied research
See How Decision Support Systems can benefit from a Theory of Change approach for an example of how ToC can support problem-framing, monitoring and evaluation.
- If you want to explore a short blog series
The following three posts were first published in 2016 and recently updated. Together, they introduce how ToC can help teams surface assumptions, strengthen design, develop visual pathways of change, and think more clearly about outcomes.- Start with Using a Theory of Change to better understand your programme for a reflective overview of how ToC can help surface assumptions, strengthen design and support clearer conversations.
- Continue with Diagramming a Theory of Change for a practical look at how an expanded logic model can help groups build a fuller picture of change.
- Then read More about outcomes and why they matter for a short reflection on why outcomes are central to strategy and evaluation, but can be harder to define than expected.
- If you are looking for older resources
Visit Earlier ToC resources for older, but still useful, links on Theory of Change.
Key elements of a Theory of Change
A Theory of Change is often shown as a pathway, but the thinking behind it is wider than a single line of cause and effect. It brings together questions about context, actors, assumptions, evidence, outcomes and sequence. The diagram below highlights some of these elements as a starting point for discussion.
These elements do not need to be developed in a fixed order. In practice, teams often move back and forth between them as they clarify the context, test assumptions, refine outcomes and build a shared account of how change may happen.
Quick answers to common questions
What is a Theory of Change used for?
A Theory of Change (ToC) is a practical way to describe how and why change is expected to happen in a project, programme, or strategy. It helps people make their intentions clear, surface assumptions, and guide planning, reflection, and learning.
How do I get started with Theory of Change?
Begin by talking with your team or partners about the changes you hope to see and why they matter. Work backwards from those outcomes, discuss the steps and conditions that would support them, and sketch how the pieces link together. The aim is to create something you can refine over time.
How does Theory of Change support work in complex multi-actor settings?
In complex settings, change rarely follows a straight line. A ToC helps teams and other partners see relationships, influences, and uncertainties, making it easier to adapt as conditions shift. It provides a shared reference point for conversation and learning.
How is Theory of Change different from logic models or outcomes mapping?
A ToC focuses on the “why” as well as the “what”, making the underlying reasoning more explicit. Logic models and outcomes maps are helpful diagramming tools that often focus more on activities and outputs, and they can sit within, or alongside, a broader ToC approach.
Does a Theory of Change need to fit on one page?
No. A ToC is often shared as a one-page sketch to help people see the core ideas, but the thinking behind it is usually wider. ToCs are often nested at different levels, from organisation-wide strategy to specific projects or topic areas. The value lies in having a version people can explore together, with more detail available when needed.
If you’re working in a similar space and would like support with Theory of Change, facilitation, MEL, or process design, you’re welcome to get in touch. I’m particularly open to short, well-defined advisory, writing, or reflection support, and am always happy to talk through what might be useful.
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